| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 4.5% | 17% | 0 | Yes 17¢ No 83¢ |
| At least 5.0% | 13% | ▲ 1 | Yes 13¢ No 87¢ |
| At least 5.5% | 9% | ▼ 2 | Yes 9¢ No 91¢ |
| At least 6.0% | 6% | 0 | Yes 6¢ No 94¢ |
| At least 6.5% | 6% | ▲ 1 | Yes 6¢ No 94¢ |
| At least 7.0% | 2% | ▼ 1 | Yes 2¢ No 98¢ |
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Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.
The Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that the median outlook for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.9%.
Research links ICE enforcement surges to lasting declines in local spending, foot traffic and jobs. In Minneapolis, businesses are still recovering.
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If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 5.5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.