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US Senate · SENATEMT · Resolves Nov 3, 2027

Who will win the Montana Senate?

Showing: Seth Bodnar · Resolves Nov 3, 2027
Seth Bodnar · 7% chance▲ 1Updated 5 min ago
Feeds 53m ago · AI summary 53m ago

Forecast

12%8%3%
Sep 12Oct 7Oct 11

Stats

Volume$238.7K
24h volume$488
Open interest$121.2K
Days left388
Bid / ask6¢ / 8¢
Last7¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
Kurt Alme94%0Yes 94¢ No 6¢
Seth Bodnar7%▲ 1Yes 7¢ No 93¢
Alani Bankhead1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢

Why it moved AI

  • Independent candidate Seth Bodnar says he is gaining momentum to beat both major parties in Montana Senate race (CNN)
  • Independent PAC backing Bodnar has spent at least $5.8M on TV attacking Democratic nominee (PatrickSvitek)
  • Montana Democrat refusing to drop out may spoil party’s Senate hopes (Washington Post)
  • Bodnar campaign focuses on defining independent identity (KPAX News)
Generated from news and X posts below · 53m ago

News

The Hill · 2h
Lawmakers in bipartisan statement push back on Trump over Russian oil

A bipartisan group of seven lawmakers on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee condemned President Trump’s recent deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which would lift sanctions on Russia and permit the flow of its oil into the global economy. “Congress explicitly banned Russian energy imports in 2022 to prevent American dollars from financing Putin’s brutal...

The Hill · 3h
Why North Carolina is shifting Democratic

Democrats have the wind at their backs in North Carolina, particularly in the race for Senate, where former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, is up against Republican political operative Michael Whatley to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). Based on polling, nonpartisan ratings and campaign ​shifts, Cooper seems poised to win. A national Republican PAC...

The Hill · 10h
Murphy takes fight against Iran war to Middle East

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) this past week took his fight against the Iran war to the Middle East, seeking to expose damages caused by the conflict that he has repeatedly accused the Trump administration of trying to cover up. Murphy, who sits on the powerful Senate Foreign Relations and Appropriations committees, traveled to Qatar and...

Politico · 2d
Democrats drop $5M into Kansas Senate race

It comes as the Senate battlefield tilts further into red turf.

CNN · Sep 23
'We are gaining momentum.' Montana Independent Senate candidate thinks he can beat a Democrat and a Republican

'We are gaining momentum.' Montana Independent Senate candidate thinks he can beat a Democrat and a

X Feed

SH
@ShaneGoldmacher · 1d

TRY YOUR HAND: Can you construct a Senate majority? Gift link 🎁: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/08/us/elections/senate-races-midterms-battleground-states.html?unlocked_article_code=1.HlE.yOPO.flYx6SKu38Bb&smid=url-share

Open on X
PA
@PatrickSvitek · 2d

Senate Majority PAC (D) announces it’s starting to play in Kansas It’ll launch a $5 million TV campaign, from tomorrow through Election Day “The gap is closing in Kansas, and we are committed to ensuring families understand” Marshall’s record, an SMP spox says #KSSEN

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SH
@ShaneGoldmacher · 2d

Senate Majority PAC newly going into KANSAS with $5 million via @baylisswagner https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/09/us/politics/adam-hamilton-roger-marshall-kansas-senate.html

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PA
@PatrickSvitek · 2d

Scoop: Ken Paxton privately complained John Cornyn “wants me to lose,” as their years-long feud boils over in a high-stakes Senate race The latest leak from a Paxton fundraiser last month: https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/09/politics/ken-paxton-audio-john-cornyn #TXSEN

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DA
@daveweigel · 3d

Progressives want Chris Van Hollen but all I’m saying is, if Dems win the senate they’ll be too busy crying tears of joy about Schumer recruiting Peltola to want a real leadership fight

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HE
@HenryJGomez · 3d

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer will campaign with Abdul El-Sayed today ahead of his #MISen debate with Mike Rogers. Whitmer, who beat El-Sayed in the 2018 primary for governor, endorsed Stevens in this year’s Senate primary.

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PA
@PatrickSvitek · 5d

#MTSEN: Independent PAC, which supports Seth Bodnar (I), is on TV attacking Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead now. This group has spent at least $5.8M in the general election, trying to create a path for Bodnar after Bankhead refused to drop out.

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Rules

If Seth Bodnar (as an Independent) is sworn in as a Senator of Montana for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.