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US Senate · SENATETX · Resolves Nov 3, 2027

Who will win the Texas Senate?

Showing: James Talarico · Resolves Nov 3, 2027
James Talarico · 61% chance▼ 1Updated 1 min ago
Feeds 14m ago · AI summary 1h ago

Forecast

70%65%59%Oct 4Oct 8Oct 11

Stats

Volume$9.6M
24h volume$357.0K
Open interest$6.5M
Days left388
Bid / ask60¢ / 61¢
Last60¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
James Talarico61%▼ 1Yes 61¢ No 39¢
Ken Paxton40%▲ 2Yes 40¢ No 60¢

Why it moved AI

  • AP News outlines 2026 Senate races to watch, no Texas focus.
  • Politico notes $5M Dem spend in Kansas Senate race.
  • Newsweek cites Nate Silver national Senate forecast at new high.
Generated from news and X posts below · 1h ago

News

The Hill · 5h
Murphy takes fight against Iran war to Middle East

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) this past week took his fight against the Iran war to the Middle East, seeking to expose damages caused by the conflict that he has repeatedly accused the Trump administration of trying to cover up. Murphy, who sits on the powerful Senate Foreign Relations and Appropriations committees, traveled to Qatar and...

The Hill · 1d
Democrats explode over Trump's Russia diesel deal

Democratic lawmakers pushed back Friday on President Trump’s decision to lift sanctions on Russian oil amid global fuel shortages during U.S. military operations against Iran and the Russia-Ukraine war. The deal will permit Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government to supply 300,000 tons of diesel to the U.S. and the global marketplace. “I have just concluded...

Politico · 1d
Trump boosts a New York ally in a tough race

GOP gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman hasn’t hesitated to tie himself to the president.

Politico · 2d
Democrats drop $5M into Kansas Senate race

It comes as the Senate battlefield tilts further into red turf.

Politico · 2d
House Democratic campaign arm says it needs $17 million, and fast

It’s the first time Democrats’ House campaign arm has put a dollar figure on its needs, as Republicans maintain a large cash advantage.

Forbes · 2d
Hottest 2026 Midterm Races—Jackson Leads In Maine, Hinson Ahead In Iowa (Updated Daily)

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi-gFBVV95cUxQVEpVa2lyNnExT25LM0hjMmtqallxNXdDU25GZWZXWUg0WGd0Yi1WX1ctcG5FS0ZXQi1FSHRkMXNFVWktY3F0TjQ2YXRGY0tWdnBQeWZWVEVRUUc2QTd5T2NzbTdyWUpYZkUxV2h2Wk1kNERUZ1c0RUl0U2lFVU4yOXh6RVBicFdaeG5iWkJBQUJsNnpFT251Y3dScEg4TVBVa3JWdC1oNHNwSTFOVzdKak9iNmlDSmU2ZUJ0cFp1QjlNa2plR01PSG5uaVFGOE80SXZFM0plNjFPdGE4d1VDcVRNQ1ZXWDMtVkZSWXd5ZF8wbXJ3MDlMRDBB?oc=5" target=

X Feed

CR
@CroniseBrandon · 7h

Cook moved 18 House races toward Democrats on Friday, and the Senate is a coin flip. Forecasts don't vote. Republicans who want to keep the Senate better quit reading ratings and start knocking doors.

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MA
@mangrove305 · 1d

@PpollingNumbers @Politics_Polls @PollTracker2024 Just completed a survey from @atlas_intel for the NC Senate race 👀👀👀

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AP
@AdImpact_Pol · 1d

Republicans lead in future ad reservations in 7 of the 8 Senate races @CookPolitical rates as Toss Up or Lean. #IASen is the exception. #OHSen: 🔴$56.0M 🔵$43.1M #TXSen: 🔴$51.5M 🔵$4.9M #IASen: 🔵$28.9M 🔴$25.4M #MESen: 🔴$25.5M 🔵$22.7M #MISen: 🔴$31.0M 🔵$17.0M #NHSen: 🔴$12.0M 🔵$11.6M #AKSen: 🔴$10.4M 🔵$10.1M #KSSen: 🔴$12.8M 🔵$4.5M

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DE
@DecisionDeskHQ · 5d

DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE: Texas Senate 🟦 James Talarico: 56% 🟥 Ken Paxton: 44% Talarico has expanded his lead to 2.7 points in the DDHQ polling average. If Democrats flip Texas, their chance of controlling the Senate is 76%.

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IA
@IAPolls2022 · 8d

Texas Senate Polling by NYT/Siena (A+) June 🟥 Paxton: 47% 🟦 Talarico: 47% October 🟦 Talarico: 51% 🟥 Paxton: 45% Net 6 point swing towards Talarico

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UP
@USA_Polling · 13d

Texas - Senate Polling: 🔵 Talarico: 47% 🔴 Paxton: 45% Big Data / Sept 26, 2026 (Republican Pollster) (Current TX-SEN model result is DEM 51% - GOP 48%) https://unitedstatespolling.com/p/republicans-are-in-full-midterm-panic

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Rules

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Texas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.