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Fed & Economy · KXFED · Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Fed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting?

Showing: Above 3.75% · Resolves Nov 4, 2026
Above 3.75% · 100% chance▲ 1Updated 40 min ago
Feeds 40m ago · AI summary 2h ago

Forecast

Price history will appear after the history job runs.

Stats

Volume$28.6K
24h volume$0
Open interest$18.7K
Days left17
Bid / ask99¢ / 100¢
Last99¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
Above 3.75%100%▲ 1Yes 100¢ No 0¢
Above 3.25%100%▲ 1Yes 100¢ No 0¢
Above 3.00%100%▲ 1Yes 100¢ No 0¢
Above 3.50%100%▲ 1Yes 100¢ No 0¢
Above 2.75%100%▲ 1Yes 100¢ No 0¢
Above 4.00%17%0Yes 17¢ No 83¢
Above 4.75%1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Above 4.50%1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Above 5.00%1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Above 5.25%1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Above 4.25%1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢

Why it moved AI

  • Fed releases Sept 15-16 2026 FOMC minutes.
  • Fed survey shows one-year inflation outlook at highest since May 2023 (CNBC).
  • NY Fed attributes everyday inflation to tariffs (CNBC).
  • Treasury's Bessent hires Judy Shelton as advisor (CNBC).
Generated from news and X posts below · 2h ago

News

CNBC Economy · 2d
Treasury's Bessent hires Trump's controversial former Fed board pick, Judy Shelton, as advisor

Shelton's controversial economic ideas led the Senate to block her nomination to the Fed. Now she's going to be a counselor to the Treasury secretary.

CNBC Economy · 3d
Inflation on many everyday items was entirely due to tariffs, NY Fed says

Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.

CNBC Economy · 4d
Inflation fears on the rise as one-year outlook in Fed survey hits highest level since May 2023

The Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that the median outlook for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.9%.

24/7 Wall St. · Sep 25
Private Credit Payouts Shrank All Year. The Fed’s First Hike Since 2023 Changes the Math

Private Credit Payouts Shrank All Year. The Fed’

Robinhood · Sep 18
September 15, 2027: Fed funds rate after Sep 2027 meeting Economics Prediction Market

September 15, 2027: Fed funds rate after Sep 2027 meeting Economics Prediction Marke

National Education Association | NEA · Jun 26
Upward Bound Programs Facing Uncertainty, Despite Proven Success

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X Feed

No X posts yet. Live search retries after the 15-minute backoff if xAI just failed (credits included).

Rules

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.75% following the Federal Reserve's Oct 28, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Oct 28, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.