α
✦
Fed & Economy · KXFED · Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Fed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting?

Showing: Above 4.00% · Resolves Nov 4, 2026
Above 4.00% · 17% chance▼ 1Updated 1 min ago
Feeds 16m ago · AI summary 4h ago

Forecast

Price history will appear after the history job runs.

Stats

Volume$202.8K
24h volume$300
Open interest$61.7K
Days left17
Bid / ask16¢ / 17¢
Last17¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
Above 3.75%100%▲ 1Yes 100¢ No 0¢
Above 3.00%100%▲ 1Yes 100¢ No 0¢
Above 3.25%100%▲ 1Yes 100¢ No 0¢
Above 3.50%100%▲ 1Yes 100¢ No 0¢
Above 2.75%100%▲ 1Yes 100¢ No 0¢
Above 4.00%17%▼ 1Yes 17¢ No 83¢
Above 4.75%1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Above 4.50%1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Above 5.00%1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Above 5.25%1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Above 4.25%1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢

Why it moved AI

  • Sept. FOMC minutes (out ~Oct. 7–8) are the main FedSpeak in view.
  • NY Fed: everyday-item inflation was entirely tariff-driven (CNBC).
  • Early-October X posts noted a shift away from an immediate hike.
  • CNBC flagged household debt stress unseen since the Great Recession.
Generated from news and X posts below · 4h ago

News

CNBC Economy · 2d
Americans' debt problems are flashing a warning not seen since the Great Recession

Researchers found that while wealth disparities narrowed somewhat, the ability to meet debt payments deteriorated significantly.

CNBC Economy · 3d
Inflation on many everyday items was entirely due to tariffs, NY Fed says

Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.

24/7 Wall St. · Sep 25
Private Credit Payouts Shrank All Year. The Fed’s First Hike Since 2023 Changes the Math

Private Credit Payouts Shrank All Year. The Fed’

Robinhood · Sep 18
September 15, 2027: Fed funds rate after Sep 2027 meeting Economics Prediction Market

September 15, 2027: Fed funds rate after Sep 2027 meeting Economics Prediction Marke

National Education Association | NEA · Jun 26
Upward Bound Programs Facing Uncertainty, Despite Proven Success

<font col

X Feed

No X posts yet. Live search retries after the 15-minute backoff if xAI just failed (credits included).

Rules

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.00% following the Federal Reserve's Oct 28, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Oct 28, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.