Fed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting?

Waller: “I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our 2% goal. But there is some flexibility about when those hikes will occur. The hikes do not need to come at consecutive meetings, but they should be in place in an acceptable period of time.”

Fed minutes: “With regard to the outlook for monetary policy beyond the current meeting, most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end.” https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260916.htm

We have posted the minutes from the #FOMC meeting held September 15-16, 2026: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261007a.htm

Our September 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations shows that households’ inflation expectations increased at the short- and medium-term horizons and remained unchanged at the longer-term horizon. Labor market expectations mostly improved with unemployment rate, job finding, job loss, and quit expectations all improving.

New from the New York Fed: "By February 2026, tariffs had contributed 2.9 pp to goods price inflation, and without them goods prices would have fallen slightly." About one quarter of every point in higher tariff rates shows up in consumer prices within one year. • A 10% across-the-board tariff yields a 2.6% rise in consumer goods prices after one year. • About two thirds of the increase comes from pricier imports, which get passed through quickly. • Another third comes from U.S. made goods, as producers face higher input costs and less import competition. This takes longer, about 6-12 months, to filter through.

U.S. CORE PCE REVISIONS REVEAL SHARPER DISINFLATION Downward revisions concentrated in 2026 have pushed annual core PCE to 3.0%, with July revised from 3.34% to 2.98%. More importantly, underlying inflation momentum has weakened significantly: 3-month annualized: 2.05% 6-month annualized: 2.74% The revisions suggest U.S. inflation was cooling faster than previously reported, beyond August’s softer reading alone.