| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25bps | 73% | ▲ 2 | Yes 73¢ No 27¢ |
| Fed maintains rate | 27% | ▲ 1 | Yes 27¢ No 73¢ |
| Hike >25bps | 3% | 0 | Yes 3¢ No 97¢ |
| Cut 25bps | 2% | 0 | Yes 2¢ No 98¢ |
| Cut >25bps | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
Fed minutes: Another rate hike likely this year to combat inflation
Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.
<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxPcmJlVl95MWJQSzkzZUNnTEhfeUVBa28wOGNnOVFISUp2Ni12V2VaZTFLaTZmRlRVX0pEOVJvYXdvSm1LaElhYVFNdS0tWlVtbVZzSkplcm1aNGNNMlNrT3drem4yLTJ6RVVkc19zVEdOWnY1VzZYaXZPdlNfY3RPUTJ30gGHAUFVX3lxTE9qUktEcm8zYVU3VUhNVU5neGNlOWdzYUNpNjdEdmZRVTRlX0tPUHVXeE1ZdHB4ZFpvOTlxVDYyZk1Denh5TnY1SVFXVjY3Z3dqSHdkT2lfejV3cHMzM2Y3ZnZpanRjQ241TXdjdndSNHY0b0RZbFNuUl9kMzZOdz
Fed Minutes Signal Further Rate Increase This Y
<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTFB2d21SUXhkazRGZk1QSTgxb2lQME5TUzdVNEZ0bWVxdWRENm96dUNfU040Rnc4Skl5MnZwcXlKLXh0c1NzYVhrNDZHY0F2M2otb0ZEZmRyd0N2Vlk1WjZ1a1FpZk9jaEtBV25HejlPUE5LVWllZDN2TtIBfkFVX3lxTE5MbUliaWM2Nm1nSDRQU0ZEUmdZUXVNVjRZeXpzRWlaY2pMRzMwdGFUb09jaWhqUFNJZEo5OUxJenR2aEtkcWR0MnVYR3VmdndJWlJTNGlPWmUzNmJYLS1oZ29fMW5PR0dzY3JYUkUzaGdfemtIQjBqc1hjMjNtZw?oc=5" target="_
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No X posts yet. Live search retries after the 15-minute backoff if xAI just failed (credits included).
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves “Hike 25 bps” to Yes and “Hike 25 bps” to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.