| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed maintains rate | 85% | 0 | Yes 85¢ No 15¢ |
| Hike 25bps | 16% | 0 | Yes 16¢ No 84¢ |
| Cut >25bps | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Cut 25bps | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Hike >25bps | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
Trump establishes committee to investigate Federal Reserve's Lisa Cook in latest effort to fire her PBS
Federal Reserve Board releases results of the 2025 Survey of Consumer Finances, which provides the public and policymakers with detailed insights into the economic condition of American families
Fed minutes: Another rate hike likely this year to combat inflation | Florida Realtors
Federal Reserve Board announces enforcement action against American Express Company to address, among other things, the firm’s failure to sufficiently detect and report certain suspicious activity related to money laundering
Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.
Fed's Waller: More hikes needed, but there is 'flexibility' about the pace Reuters
Fed officials view another rate hike as ‘likely,’ meeting minutes show The Hill
Fed policymakers divided over rate-hike logic in September, minutes show Reuters
Federal Reserve officials expect another rate hike will be needed this year, according to minutes ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos
Fed Minutes Signal Further Rate Increase This Year, but No Urgency for October Hike WSJ
Fed officials see another hike coming, but no sign as to when, minutes show CNBC
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by Isabella Bank Corporation
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by Fleur Capital Corporation
Federal Reserve hikes key rate for 1st time in 3 years, defying Trump demands for a cut AP News
US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the first time since 2023 The Guardian
The Fed - September 15-16, 2026 FOMC Meeting Federal Reserve (.gov)
Fed approves interest rate hike, signals one more to come this year CNBC
**Recent X posts (early-to-mid October 2026) show ongoing discussion around the Federal Reserve's September 2026 rate hike and the upcoming October 27–28 FOMC meeting.**[[1]](https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/2106019529692196921) Key themes from posts by or referencing official/analyst accounts (@federalreserve, @NickTimiraos, @CMEFedWatch implied via odds, and related commentary): - **September
**Recent X posts (late September to early October 2026) show the Federal Reserve and FOMC focused on data-dependent policy amid persistent inflation concerns.**[[1]](https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/2105712563061137879) Key themes include: - **FOMC minutes and September decision**: All 19 participants supported rate hikes in September. Most saw another hike in 2026 as likely appropriate, with se
**Recent X posts (late September to early October 2026) from or referencing the specified accounts focus on the FOMC's September 2026 meeting minutes, signals around potential further rate hikes, and the balance between inflation and labor market data.**[[1]](https://x.com/federalreserve/status/2107894279473672685) Key themes include: - **FOMC minutes release (Oct 7–8)**: The September 15–16 meet
**Recent X posts (late September to mid-October 2026) show ongoing debate around Federal Reserve policy, inflation, and potential rate moves ahead of the October 28 FOMC meeting.**[[1]](https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/2106019529692196921) Key themes include: - **CME FedWatch Tool** indicating only a ~19% probability of a 25 bps rate hike at the next meeting, reflecting tempered expectations for
**Recent X posts (mostly from late September to early October 2026) show ongoing debate around Fed policy, with a focus on the September FOMC rate hike, upcoming data, and the October 28–29, 2026 meeting.**[[1]](https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/2106149100592980279) Key themes from the searched posts (filtered for English and mentions of official/expert accounts like @federalreserve, @NickTimir
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves “Hike 25 bps” to Yes and “Hike 25 bps” to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.