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Fed maintains rate 85%Starts 4%Hike 25bps 16%Exactly 0 cuts 95%Cuts 5%Exactly 1 cut 4%Cut 25bps 1%Exactly 2 cuts 1%
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Fed & Economy · KXFEDDECISION · Resolves 1/27/2027

Fed decision in Oct 2026?

85%0Updated 3 min agoKalshi Yes · Fed maintains rate
Feeds 1m · summary 32m
Trade on Kalshi
OverviewNewsX FeedAI SummaryRulesRelated Markets

Forecast

6H1D1W1MALL
94%58%22%Sep 12Oct 7Oct 11

Stats

Volume$4.0M
24h volume$14.6K
Open interest$1.5M
Days left18
Bid / ask84¢ / 85¢
Last85¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
Fed maintains rate85%0Yes 85¢ No 15¢
Hike 25bps16%0Yes 16¢ No 84¢
Cut >25bps1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Cut 25bps1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Hike >25bps1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢

Why it moved AI

  • Minutes showed officials viewing another hike as likely, though September logic was divided (The Hill, Reuters).
  • Waller said more hikes are needed, with flexibility on the pace (Reuters).
  • A NY Fed note tied much everyday inflation to tariffs (CNBC); Trump opened a probe of Governor Lisa Cook (PBS).
Generated from news and X posts below · 32m ago
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting? · Predictions Alpha