| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed maintains rate | 85% | ▲ 1 | Yes 85¢ No 15¢ |
| Hike 25bps | 16% | 0 | Yes 16¢ No 84¢ |
| Cut >25bps | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Hike >25bps | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Cut 25bps | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
Fed minutes: Another rate hike likely this year to combat inflation
Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.
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Fed Minutes Signal Further Rate Increase This Y
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Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm via @FederalReserve
Open on XAnd...if it IS the prices, why did the Fed cut by 175 bps over the last two years? If inflation is too high today. It is a result of what the Fed did over the last 12-24 months. Bottom line: the Federal Reserve is incompetent. @federalreserve
Open on XWith money on sidelines and unknowns due to @federalreserve 's reckless hiking of interest rates claiming 1/2% decrement in inflation is critical (read:they ALWAYS kill the market under Republicans), expected recession seems looming.
Open on XIf they are serious they need hike in Oct else no belives them they can control inflation.
Open on XQ3 GDP close to 4%, inflation over 3.5% and rising and he wants to talk hawkish, but pause in October. No surprise why the fed has no credibility as an inflation fighter.
Open on X@federalreserve has it all wrong. This is a commodity based inflation. We need more oil, diesel, gasoline and other commodities. That can be fixed by more investment in drilling, digging, building refineries, etc. Raising interest rates reduces the amount of CapEx that goes to increasing these. If a company can afford $100M at today's interest rate, they might invest $120M at a lower rate. So the Fed is reducing our ability to meet demand. Diesel and electricity effect almost everything. If you want lower inflation, CUT the rate. It will also help housing which is currently adding to inflation. Fewer homes results in higher prices and rents.
Open on X🏛️ MACRO HEADWINDS FOMC minutes (Oct 7): All 19 Fed officials backed September's rate hike, most see another before year-end. Inflation remained elevated with insufficient progress. CPI sits at 3.4% YoY, 70% above the Fed's 2% target. Jobless claims came at 197K vs. 200K expected, showing a labor market tight enough for the Fed to stay restrictive. Bitcoin gave back early gains after every data release this week. Macro isn't helping.
Open on XFed minutes are out, and they lean hawkish. $QQQ $SPY 👇 ➤September's 25 bp hike to 3.75%–4.00% was unanimous ➤Most officials see another hike by year-end ➤PCE inflation 3.8%, core 3.4%, risks still skewed higher ➤Staff doesn't see 2% inflation until 2029 The part AI traders should read twice: the Fed says the AI buildout is adding to inflation, and heavy AI-infrastructure debt issuance is helping push Treasury yields higher. 😳 The trade that led this market up is now part of the Fed's rate math. Next meeting: Oct. 27–28.
Open on XIf the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves “Hike 25 bps” to Yes and “Hike 25 bps” to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.