| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed maintains rate | 85% | 0 | Yes 85¢ No 15¢ |
| Hike 25bps | 16% | 0 | Yes 16¢ No 84¢ |
| Cut >25bps | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Cut 25bps | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Hike >25bps | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
Federal Reserve Board releases results of the 2025 Survey of Consumer Finances, which provides the public and policymakers with detailed insights into the economic condition of American families
Federal Reserve Board announces enforcement action against American Express Company to address, among other things, the firm’s failure to sufficiently detect and report certain suspicious activity related to money laundering
Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.
Fed's Waller: More hikes needed, but there is 'flexibility' about the pace Reuters
Fed officials view another rate hike as ‘likely,’ meeting minutes show The Hill
Federal Reserve officials expect another rate hike will be needed this year, according to minutes ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos
Fed Minutes Signal Further Rate Increase This Year, but No Urgency for October Hike WSJ
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by Isabella Bank Corporation
FOMC Minutes October 2026: Release Time and Preview Admirals
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by Fleur Capital Corporation
The Fed - September 15-16, 2026 FOMC Meeting Federal Reserve (.gov)
Fed approves interest rate hike, signals one more to come this year CNBC
Federal Reserve hikes key rate for 1st time in 3 years, defying Trump demands for a cut AP News
US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the first time since 2023 The Guardian
Federal Funds Rate History 1990 to 2026 Forbes
Five Takeaways from the Fed’s May Meeting, as Chairman Jerome Powell Steps Down Cox Automotive Inc.
**Recent X posts (late September to early October 2026) from or referencing key accounts like @NickTimiraos, @federalreserve, and related sources show the FOMC's cautious stance after its September 15-16, 2026 meeting.**[[1]](https://x.com/federalreserve/status/2107894279473672685) The released minutes indicate a unanimous rate hike to 3.75-4% at that meeting, with most participants expecting **a
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves “Hike 25 bps” to Yes and “Hike 25 bps” to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.