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Fed & Economy · KXFEDDECISION · Resolves 1/27/2027

Fed decision in Oct 2026?

16%0Updated 3 min agoKalshi Yes · Hike 25bps
Feeds 12m · summary 1m

Forecast

78%43%7%Sep 12Oct 7Oct 11

Stats

Volume$2.7M
24h volume$4.0K
Open interest$1.1M
Days left18
Bid / ask15¢ / 16¢
Last15¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
Fed maintains rate85%0Yes 85¢ No 15¢
Hike 25bps16%0Yes 16¢ No 84¢
Cut >25bps1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Cut 25bps1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Hike >25bps1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢

Why it moved AI

  • September FOMC minutes show officials view another hike as likely this year, per The Hill and ABC News.
  • WSJ reports the minutes signal no urgency for an October increase.
  • Fed's Waller said more hikes are needed but the pace is flexible, Reuters reported.
  • A NY Fed finding, cited by CNBC, tied much everyday inflation to tariffs.
Generated from news and X posts below · 1m ago