Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.
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Fed Minutes Signal Further Rate Increase This Y
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For the hawk's side of the ledger: Michigan's October release has households' 1-year inflation expectations at 4.7% and long-run expectations at 3.5% — both ticking up. The factory floor may be calm, but household expectations aren't.
Open on XWhat is the main reason slower payroll growth in September is seen as supportive of the Fed holding rates steady? It reduces concerns that the labor market is overheating in a way that would push up wage and price inflation (the Phillips-curve channel).
Open on XAnd...if it IS the prices, why did the Fed cut by 175 bps over the last two years? If inflation is too high today. It is a result of what the Fed did over the last 12-24 months. Bottom line: the Federal Reserve is incompetent. @federalreserve
Open on XWith money on sidelines and unknowns due to @federalreserve 's reckless hiking of interest rates claiming 1/2% decrement in inflation is critical (read:they ALWAYS kill the market under Republicans), expected recession seems looming.
Open on XIf they are serious they need hike in Oct else no belives them they can control inflation.
Open on XQ3 GDP close to 4%, inflation over 3.5% and rising and he wants to talk hawkish, but pause in October. No surprise why the fed has no credibility as an inflation fighter.
Open on X@federalreserve has it all wrong. This is a commodity based inflation. We need more oil, diesel, gasoline and other commodities. That can be fixed by more investment in drilling, digging, building refineries, etc. Raising interest rates reduces the amount of CapEx that goes to increasing these. If a company can afford $100M at today's interest rate, they might invest $120M at a lower rate. So the Fed is reducing our ability to meet demand. Diesel and electricity effect almost everything. If you want lower inflation, CUT the rate. It will also help housing which is currently adding to inflation. Fewer homes results in higher prices and rents.
Open on X🦅 FOMC MINUTES — THE HAWKISH TRIPLE. Thread. 🧵 1️⃣ "MOST PARTICIPANTS: LIKELY APPROPRIATE FOR ANOTHER RATE HIKE BY YEAR-END" Sept: 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%. First hike since Jul 2023. Dots: 12/18 want more. 2️⃣ "INFLATION RISKS SKEWED TO THE UPSIDE, LABOR RISKS DIMINISHING" The dovish excuse is gone. 3️⃣ "DECISIONS WILL DEPEND ON INCOMING DATA" Escape hatch. CPI Oct 14 decides. THE SHRUG 🤷 SPX -0.25%. 10Y 5.288% — OFF the 5.37 high. Russell -1.19%. Most hawkish minutes of the cycle. Barely a blink. Priced in. SCRIPT CHECK 📋 Morning script: retest day, support 7784. SPX ~7,800 holds. Script absorbed the minutes. DESK 🧠 "Most" ≠ decision. Dots ≠ promises. Watch CPI Oct 14. [NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, DYOR!] from Humble Trader | Gemini Trading
Open on X