| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 0 cuts | 95% | ▼ 1 | Yes 95¢ No 5¢ |
| Exactly 1 cut | 4% | ▲ 1 | Yes 4¢ No 96¢ |
| Exactly 2 cuts | 1% | ▼ 1 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Exactly 12 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 3 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 7 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 13 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 5 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 10 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 18 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 16 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 8 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 4 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 15 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 19 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 11 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 20 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 6 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 14 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 17 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 9 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
Trump launches probe into Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook Al Jazeera
Trump announces committee investigation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook SCOTUSblog
Federal Reserve Board releases results of the 2025 Survey of Consumer Finances, which provides the public and policymakers with detailed insights into the economic condition of American families
Shelton's controversial economic ideas led the Senate to block her nomination to the Fed. Now she's going to be a counselor to the Treasury secretary.
Fed's Musalem says tighter monetary policy needed to lower inflation Reuters
Federal Reserve Board announces enforcement action against American Express Company to address, among other things, the firm’s failure to sufficiently detect and report certain suspicious activity related to money laundering
Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.
The Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that the median outlook for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.9%.
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by Isabella Bank Corporation
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by Fleur Capital Corporation
What makes the Federal Reserve decide to raise or lower interest rates? Chase Bank
Fed Raises Interest Rates in Push for ‘Timelier’ Retreat in Inflation The New York Times
The Fed - September 15-16, 2026 FOMC Meeting Federal Reserve (.gov)
Federal Reserve hikes key rate for 1st time in 3 years, defying Trump demands for a cut AP News
Fed raises interest rates for first time since 2023, defying Trump as inflation mounts NBC News
Federal Funds Rate History 1990 to 2026 Forbes
WATCH: Warsh says 'inflation is too high' after Fed raises interest rate 1st time in 3 years PBS
**Recent X posts (late September to early October 2026) on Federal Reserve/FOMC topics show a mix of hawkish signals, inflation concerns, and market reactions.**[[1]](https://x.com/xCubefi/status/2108223799174791262) Key themes from the results: - **FOMC minutes (released ~Oct 7, 2026)**: Unanimous 12-0 decision to hike the federal funds rate by 25 bp to 3.75–4.00%. Officials noted elevated infla
If the Fed cuts 4 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on).