| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.5% | 11% | ▼ 3 | Yes 11¢ No 89¢ |
| Above 17% | 5% | ▼ 4 | Yes 5¢ No 95¢ |
| Above 4.8% | 5% | ▼ 2 | Yes 5¢ No 95¢ |
| Above 6% | 4% | ▲ 3 | Yes 4¢ No 96¢ |
| Above 12% | 3% | ▼ 2 | Yes 3¢ No 97¢ |
| Above 9% | 3% | ▼ 1 | Yes 3¢ No 97¢ |
| Above 8% | 3% | ▼ 1 | Yes 3¢ No 97¢ |
| Above 5.5% | 10% | ▲ 7 | Yes 10¢ No 90¢ |
| Above 15% | 5% | ▲ 2 | Yes 5¢ No 95¢ |
| Above 10% | 2% | ▼ 1 | Yes 2¢ No 98¢ |
| Above 5% | 5% | ▼ 1 | Yes 5¢ No 95¢ |
| Above 6.5% | 2% | 0 | Yes 2¢ No 98¢ |
| Above 7% | 2% | ▲ 1 | Yes 2¢ No 98¢ |
| Above 20% | 5% | ▲ 5 | Yes 5¢ No 95¢ |
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Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.
The Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that the median outlook for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.9%.
University of Fort
Global New
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If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 15%, the market resolves to Yes.