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Fed & Economy · KXU3MAX · Resolves Mar 9, 2027

How high will unemployment get in 2026?

Showing: Above 4.5% · Resolves Mar 9, 2027
Above 4.5% · 11% chance▼ 3Updated 9 min ago
Feeds 8m ago · AI summary 2h ago

Forecast

33%21%8%
Sep 12Oct 7Oct 11

Stats

Volume$34.6K
24h volume$386
Open interest$10.8K
Days left89
Bid / ask8¢ / 13¢
Last13¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
Above 4.5%11%▼ 3Yes 11¢ No 89¢
Above 5%5%▲ 2Yes 5¢ No 95¢
Above 17%5%▼ 4Yes 5¢ No 95¢
Above 4.8%5%▼ 2Yes 5¢ No 95¢
Above 6%4%▲ 3Yes 4¢ No 96¢
Above 12%3%▼ 2Yes 3¢ No 97¢
Above 9%3%▼ 1Yes 3¢ No 97¢
Above 8%2%▼ 2Yes 2¢ No 98¢
Above 5.5%6%▲ 3Yes 6¢ No 94¢
Above 15%4%▲ 1Yes 4¢ No 96¢
Above 10%3%0Yes 3¢ No 97¢
Above 6.5%2%0Yes 2¢ No 98¢
Above 7%2%▲ 1Yes 2¢ No 98¢
Above 20%4%▲ 4Yes 4¢ No 96¢

Why it moved AI

  • Fed's Musalem: Job market overall balanced and stable, no need to cool it (@financialjuice)
  • Fed's Waller: September labor market solid and stable despite drop in job creation (@FirstSquawk)
  • U.S. consumer sentiment falls to 46.3 as inflation expectations rise (@DeItaone)
Generated from news and X posts below · 2h ago