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Fed & Economy · KXU3MAX · Resolves Mar 9, 2027

How high will unemployment get in 2026?

Showing: Above 6.5% · Resolves Mar 9, 2027
Above 6.5% · 2% chance0Updated just now
Feeds just now · AI summary 41m ago

Forecast

9%5%0%Sep 12Oct 6Oct 10

Stats

Volume$8.3K
24h volume$0
Open interest$5.6K
Days left89
Bid / ask1¢ / 3¢
Last2¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
Above 4.5%11%0Yes 11¢ No 89¢
Above 17%5%▼ 4Yes 5¢ No 95¢
Above 4.8%5%▼ 2Yes 5¢ No 95¢
Above 5%5%▲ 2Yes 5¢ No 95¢
Above 12%3%▼ 2Yes 3¢ No 97¢
Above 9%3%▼ 1Yes 3¢ No 97¢
Above 8%3%▼ 1Yes 3¢ No 97¢
Above 15%4%▲ 1Yes 4¢ No 96¢
Above 10%2%▼ 1Yes 2¢ No 98¢
Above 5.5%10%▲ 7Yes 10¢ No 90¢
Above 6%4%▲ 3Yes 4¢ No 96¢
Above 6.5%2%0Yes 2¢ No 98¢
Above 7%2%▲ 1Yes 2¢ No 98¢
Above 20%5%▲ 5Yes 5¢ No 95¢

Why it moved AI

  • Labor market report showed unemployment rate rose to 4.2% and job growth softer than previously reported. (@NickTimiraos)
  • 3-month average hiring revised lower to 51k for Aug and Sept. (@NickTimiraos)
  • Core PCE +0.25% in Aug, annualizing to 3%; July revised to +0.13%. (@NickTimiraos)
Generated from news and X posts below · 41m ago