| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.5% | 11% | 0 | Yes 11¢ No 89¢ |
| Above 17% | 5% | ▼ 4 | Yes 5¢ No 95¢ |
| Above 5% | 5% | ▲ 2 | Yes 5¢ No 95¢ |
| Above 4.8% | 5% | ▼ 2 | Yes 5¢ No 95¢ |
| Above 12% | 3% | ▼ 2 | Yes 3¢ No 97¢ |
| Above 6% | 4% | ▲ 3 | Yes 4¢ No 96¢ |
| Above 9% | 3% | ▼ 1 | Yes 3¢ No 97¢ |
| Above 8% | 3% | ▼ 1 | Yes 3¢ No 97¢ |
| Above 15% | 4% | ▲ 1 | Yes 4¢ No 96¢ |
| Above 10% | 2% | ▼ 1 | Yes 2¢ No 98¢ |
| Above 5.5% | 6% | ▲ 3 | Yes 6¢ No 94¢ |
| Above 6.5% | 2% | 0 | Yes 2¢ No 98¢ |
| Above 7% | 2% | ▲ 1 | Yes 2¢ No 98¢ |
| Above 20% | 5% | ▲ 5 | Yes 5¢ No 95¢ |
Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.
The Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that the median outlook for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.9%.
University of Fort
Global New
<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgJBVV95cUxPT3p1alpxVjM2TFBQZUttdndhMUFzTnpOS0ZTT01iTXFUUVl5eG1nMGE3NDRLVVhOdzF1V29pRkcxN2doNV9FWTFHLXhYVUF5T1BQMG9aTnZydmlvVDJrU19GSm95ZG92VGExTkZ2dy1UNnJ4bUMxQVQ5TVgxOWxIUFg0aWZ0QnBhbzFLY3N6bTJqTUUwa0hBNkZuUzVZcmZ5VXcwdUVaR0UtRjdJUV9MOUVKUm5EN2dhY0tiU1hlbUpydjlTVnlTR055cUZ1TU01YXVtRU1KSFItejAyYXZvaWlFUVc2NWxndjljQk8yZHN2ZzdlcEVkSkpRY01QYWVlRDN6VV
U.S. CONSUMER SENTIMENT FALLS AS INFLATION EXPECTATIONS RISE University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 46.3 in October, missing expectations of 47.8 and declining from 48.1 in September. The current conditions index plunged to 44.7, well below forecasts of 51.0. Meanwhile, 1-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7%, while 5-year expectations climbed to 3.5%, signaling persistent inflation concerns among consumers.
Open on XFED'S MUSALEM SAYS THE ECONOMY IS PRETTY STRONG RIGHT NOW AND THE BEST THING THE FED CAN DO IS LOWER INFLATION, ADDING THAT THE JOB MARKET IS OVERALL BALANCED AND STABLE WITH NO NEED TO COOL IT TO GET INFLATION DOWN, THOUGH THERE IS A RISK CONSUMER VIGOR COULD WANE AND CONTACTS ARE MOSTLY WORRIED ABOUT INFLATION RATHER THAN THE JOB MARKET.
Open on XFed's Musalem: Job market is overall balanced and stable; there is no need to cool the job market to get inflation down
Open on XFed’s Waller: More Hikes Needed But Flexible About The Pace; Hikes Do Not Need To Come At Consecutive Meetings - Inflation Too High - Evidence That Economy Is Strengthening In The Second Half - Labor Market "Solid And Stable" In September
Open on XWALLER STATED THAT HIGH INFLATION, NOW NEAR 5-1/2 YEARS OVER TARGET, COULD JEOPARDIZE INFLATION EXPECTATIONS; SEPTEMBER LABOR MARKET WAS "SOLID AND STABLE" DESPITE A DROP IN JOB CREATIONS.
Open on XFed's Waller: Concerned high inflation, now approaching 5-1/2 years above target, will put inflation expectations at risk.
Open on XTIMIRAOS: WEAK JOBS REPORT CLEARS PATH FOR FED PAUSE The September jobs report gives the Fed more room to hold rates steady in October, with hiring slowing and unemployment edging up to 4.2%. With little evidence of labor-market inflation pressure, attention now shifts to September CPI on October 14, which could be more decisive for the next rate move.
Open on XU.S. INFLATION BREADTH SHOWS SIGNS OF COOLING Despite softer core PCE revisions, 51% of the PCE basket is still rising at 3% or more annually, little changed from recent months. However, the share experiencing inflation above 3% on a six-month annualized basis fell to 44% in August, from 49% in July — its lowest since October 2025. Underlying price pressures are easing, although inflation remains widespread.
Open on XIf any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 7%, the market resolves to Yes.