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Fed & Economy · KXU3MAX · Resolves Mar 9, 2027

How high will unemployment get in 2026?

Showing: Above 9% · Resolves Mar 9, 2027
Above 9% · 3% chance▼ 1Updated 5 min ago
Feeds 1m ago · AI summary 2h ago

Forecast

7%4%0%Sep 12Oct 7Oct 11

Stats

Volume$18.3K
24h volume$0
Open interest$7.5K
Days left89
Bid / ask1¢ / 4¢
Last4¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
Above 4.5%12%▲ 1Yes 12¢ No 88¢
Above 17%5%▼ 4Yes 5¢ No 95¢
Above 4.8%5%▼ 2Yes 5¢ No 95¢
Above 5%5%▲ 2Yes 5¢ No 95¢
Above 12%3%▼ 2Yes 3¢ No 97¢
Above 8%3%▼ 1Yes 3¢ No 97¢
Above 9%3%▼ 1Yes 3¢ No 97¢
Above 15%4%▲ 1Yes 4¢ No 96¢
Above 5.5%4%▲ 1Yes 4¢ No 96¢
Above 10%3%0Yes 3¢ No 97¢
Above 6%4%▲ 3Yes 4¢ No 96¢
Above 6.5%2%0Yes 2¢ No 98¢
Above 7%2%▲ 1Yes 2¢ No 98¢
Above 20%5%▲ 5Yes 5¢ No 95¢

Why it moved AI

  • - September payrolls +29k vs ~90k expected; unemployment rose to 4.2% (@coinbureau, @26_Chase_fuzz)
  • - Weak report cited by Timiraos as clearing path for Fed pause on hikes (@DeItaone, @NickTimiraos)
  • - NY Fed SCE: 1y inflation expectations hit 3.9%, highest since May 2023 (@doubledragonhq)
Generated from news and X posts below · 2h ago