| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.50% | 99% | 0 | Yes 99¢ No 1¢ |
| Above 3.25% | 98% | ▼ 1 | Yes 98¢ No 2¢ |
| Above 2.75% | 99% | ▲ 1 | Yes 99¢ No 1¢ |
| Above 3.75% | 98% | 0 | Yes 98¢ No 2¢ |
| Above 3.00% | 99% | ▲ 1 | Yes 99¢ No 1¢ |
| Above 4.00% | 83% | ▼ 5 | Yes 83¢ No 17¢ |
| Above 4.25% | 17% | ▼ 2 | Yes 17¢ No 83¢ |
| Above 4.50% | 5% | ▼ 1 | Yes 5¢ No 95¢ |
| Above 5.00% | 1% | ▼ 1 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 4.75% | 1% | ▼ 1 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Above 5.25% | 1% | 0 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
Researchers found that while wealth disparities narrowed somewhat, the ability to meet debt payments deteriorated significantly.
Shelton's controversial economic ideas led the Senate to block her nomination to the Fed. Now she's going to be a counselor to the Treasury secretary.
Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.
The Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that the median outlook for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.9%.
Private Credit Payouts Shrank All Year. The Fed’
September 15, 2027: Fed funds rate after Sep 2027 meeting Economics Prediction Marke
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Her own bank's model points the same way, at least for the core. The Cleveland Fed nowcast (as of Oct 9) has September core CPI at +0.2% m/m. Headline is +0.5%, and the gap is food and energy. Factory pricing looks calm; the gas pump doesn't. BLS prints Wed, 8:30 ET.
Open on XNY Fed SCE Sept: median 1y inflation expectations 3.9% (+0.3, highest since May 2023); 3y 3.3% (+0.1); 5y still 3.0%. Household spending-growth expectations also hit 5.5% (+0.3), another May 2023 high.
Open on XFederal Reserve issues FOMC statement https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm via @FederalReserve
Open on XAnd...if it IS the prices, why did the Fed cut by 175 bps over the last two years? If inflation is too high today. It is a result of what the Fed did over the last 12-24 months. Bottom line: the Federal Reserve is incompetent. @federalreserve
Open on XA little Friday food for thought heading into the weekend courtesy of the @NewYorkFed. Note the difference between actual inflation and the counterfactual without. In less than one year following the unleashing of tariffs they contributed 2.9pp to inflation. Without the tariffs inflation actual declines. Worthy of your consideration.
Open on XThe inflation number on the news says 2.4%. The one the Fed watches most says 3% 🤯 Both leave out food and energy. 👇 @federalreserve
Open on XFedWatch Tool https://quiktweet.com/390360 #QuikTweets via @QuikStrike1 @CMEGroup 19% chance of another (25 BPS) interest rate-hike, to curb inflation, as per the Chicago CME, using 30-day fed futures to predict the FOMC
Open on XIf the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.50% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Dec 9, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.