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Fed & Economy · KXRATECUTCOUNT · Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Showing: Exactly 15 cuts · Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Exactly 15 cuts · 0% chance0Updated 4 min ago
Feeds just now · AI summary 2h ago

Forecast

5%3%0%
Oct 5Oct 7Oct 11

Stats

Volume$358.7K
24h volume$7.0K
Open interest$352.7K
Days left82
Bid / ask0¢ / 0¢
Last0¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
Exactly 0 cuts96%▲ 1Yes 96¢ No 4¢
Exactly 1 cut4%▲ 1Yes 4¢ No 96¢
Exactly 2 cuts1%0Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Exactly 19 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 13 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 18 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 12 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 3 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 6 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 9 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 4 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 10 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 17 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 7 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 5 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 14 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 11 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 8 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 20 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 15 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 16 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢

Why it moved AI

  • Fed's Musalem: inflation elevated, driven by persistent demand pressures and supply shocks (@LiveSquawk)
  • Musalem: current inflation level requires Fed to consider rate hikes, rates ought to be going up in next 6-9 months (@LiveSquawk)
  • Musalem signals more rate hikes may be needed (@DeItaone)
  • Musalem: economy pretty strong, best thing Fed can do is lower inflation (@financialjuice)
Generated from news and X posts below · 2h ago

News

CNBC Economy · 2d
Treasury's Bessent hires Trump's controversial former Fed board pick, Judy Shelton, as advisor

Shelton's controversial economic ideas led the Senate to block her nomination to the Fed. Now she's going to be a counselor to the Treasury secretary.

Benzinga · Aug 3
Could XRP Benefit if the Fed Pivots Again? One Macro Strategist Says Yes

Could XRP Benefit if the Fed Pivots Again? One Ma

Reason Magazine · Jun 29
Can the president fire anyone he wants? Yes, unless the target is part of the Federal Reserve.

Can the president fire anyone he wants? Yes, unless the target is par

PBS · Apr 21
WATCH: Kevin Warsh testifies in Senate Banking confirmation hearing for Fed chair

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwAFBVV95cUxPa3lzbEJWZHJKS2dKZHNGOTN0UDBkc2laMU9sWm84MVdPZkFkNGxkMlU1dDBleHVCLVE0aHNVQXdKTzVCYnEtWVRSYzZxOXF3SjRUcmJjNjgxR1JKMVdDX1lIQkdnbERtOTFYQVpfc2FOS2VHcjl0dHd5Yy1IbnhidUhSVDdncHpwRndpbFJlVFBiX1FkWWZQYjZCTk4wb0tBdnpjT2Zsb1B2QVRmRzVubG1CdUY0UGwzN2diSEpoSnjSAcYBQVVfeXFMTVEyZHl1YTN5d3NoUktCdFY2ejItLVdmeEhfZ0NJRkdlZUcxRGYwV0phZmthcXBvNDUzeHNMSFdZWF

X Feed

FI
@FirstSquawk · 3d

SPOT GOLD GAINS 0.3% TO $4,147.77 AS INFLATION RISKS AND FED RATE OUTLOOK REMAIN IN FOCUS - RTRS

Open on X
FI
@financialjuice · 3d

Fed's Musalem: Market inflation expectations remain anchored, doesn't see Fed credibility questioned

Open on X
LI
@LiveSquawk · 3d

Fed’s Musalem: Current Inflation Level Requires Fed To Consider Rate Hikes - Rates ‘Ought To Be Going Up’ In Next 6-9 Months - Open Minded When Going Into All Meetings - Contacts Are Mostly Worried About Inflation, Doesn’t See Job Market Worries - Economy Is Pretty Strong Right Now

Open on X
LI
@LiveSquawk · 3d

Fed's Musalem: Inflation Is Elevated, Being Driven By Persistent Demand Pressures And Supply Shocks - Returning Inflation To Target In Timely Manner, Limiting Second Round Effects Is ‘Key’ - More Monetary Policy Firming Will Be Required To Bring Inflation Back To Target

Open on X
DE
@DeItaone · 3d

FED'S MUSALEM SIGNALS MORE RATE HIKES MAY BE NEEDED Fed's Alberto Musalem says inflation remains elevated, driven by persistent demand pressures and supply shocks. He warns that further monetary tightening will be required to bring inflation back to the Fed's 2% target, with current conditions warranting consideration of rate increases. Musalem says the U.S. economy remains strong, while business contacts are more concerned about inflation than the labor market.

Open on X
FI
@financialjuice · 3d

Fed's Musalem: The economy is pretty strong right now, best thing Fed can do is lower inflation

Open on X

Rules

If the Fed cuts 15 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on).