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Fed maintains rate 85%Starts 4%Hike 25bps 16%Exactly 0 cuts 95%Cuts 5%Exactly 1 cut 4%Cut 25bps 1%Exactly 2 cuts 1%
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Fed & Economy · KXRATECUTCOUNT · Resolves 1/1/2027

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

4%▲ 1Updated 3 min agoKalshi Yes · Exactly 1 cut
Feeds 1m · summary just now
Trade on Kalshi
OverviewNewsX FeedAI SummaryRulesRelated Markets

Forecast

6H1D1W1MALL
10%5%0%Sep 12Oct 6Oct 11

Stats

Volume$1.2M
24h volume$1.3K
Open interest$419.0K
Days left82
Bid / ask4¢ / 4¢
Last4¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
Exactly 0 cuts95%▼ 1Yes 95¢ No 5¢
Exactly 1 cut4%▲ 1Yes 4¢ No 96¢
Exactly 2 cuts1%▼ 1Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Exactly 10 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 20 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 12 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 17 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 4 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 15 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 8 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 11 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 13 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 14 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 5 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 3 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 18 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 19 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 6 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 16 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 9 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 7 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢

Why it moved AI

  • Fed’s Musalem said tighter policy is needed to lower inflation, hawkish FedSpeak (Reuters).
  • The Financial Times asked whether September inflation will cement rate policy for the rest of the year.
  • CNBC cited NY Fed research tying inflation on many everyday items entirely to tariffs.
  • Late Sep–early Oct X posts on FOMC, CPI and the funds rate were described as hawkish.
Generated from news and X posts below · just now ago