| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 0 cuts | 95% | ▼ 1 | Yes 95¢ No 5¢ |
| Exactly 1 cut | 4% | ▲ 1 | Yes 4¢ No 96¢ |
| Exactly 2 cuts | 1% | ▼ 1 | Yes 1¢ No 99¢ |
| Exactly 12 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 3 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 7 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 4 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 13 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 5 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 14 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 18 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 16 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 8 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 15 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 19 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 11 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 20 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 10 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 6 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 17 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
| Exactly 9 cuts | 0% | 0 | Yes 0¢ No 100¢ |
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**Recent X posts (late Sep–early Oct 2026) on Fed policy, FOMC, Powell/funds rate, rate decisions, inflation, and CPI, focused on or engaging the specified accounts, show a hawkish tilt in recent FOMC minutes and ongoing debate about inflation persistence.**[[1]](https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/2107943869283233840) Key themes include: - **FOMC minutes and hawkish stance**: Multiple posts refer
If the Fed cuts 1 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on).