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Fed & Economy · KXRATECUTCOUNT · Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Showing: Exactly 2 cuts · Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Exactly 2 cuts · 1% chance▼ 1Updated 1 min ago
Feeds 4m ago · AI summary 3h ago
Trade on Kalshi
OverviewNewsX FeedAI SummaryRulesRelated Markets

Forecast

6H1D1W1MALL
6%3%0%Oct 10Oct 11Oct 11

Stats

Volume$979.2K
24h volume$4.1K
Open interest$450.7K
Days left82
Bid / ask1¢ / 1¢
Last1¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
Exactly 0 cuts96%0Yes 96¢ No 4¢
Exactly 1 cut4%▲ 1Yes 4¢ No 96¢
Exactly 2 cuts1%▼ 1Yes 1¢ No 99¢
Exactly 12 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 13 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 4 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 15 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 7 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 9 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 18 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 3 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 8 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 16 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 19 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 5 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 14 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 11 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 10 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 20 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 17 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢
Exactly 6 cuts0%0Yes 0¢ No 100¢

Why it moved AI

  • Fed's Musalem said tighter policy is needed to lower inflation, a hawkish case against multiple cuts (Reuters).
  • Financial Times asked whether September inflation will cement the rate path for the rest of the year.
  • NY Fed research tied inflation on many everyday items entirely to tariffs, keeping price pressure in focus (CNBC).
Generated from news and X posts below · 3h ago

News

Financial Times · 8h
Will September inflation cement US interest rate policy for the rest of the year?
Al Jazeera · 1d
Trump launches probe into Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook
SCOTUSblog · 2d
Trump announces committee investigation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook
Federal Reserve · 2d
Federal Reserve Board releases results of the 2025 Survey of Consumer Finances, which provides the public and policymakers with detailed insights into the economic condition of American families
CNBC Economy · 2d
Treasury's Bessent hires Trump's controversial former Fed board pick, Judy Shelton, as advisor

Shelton's controversial economic ideas led the Senate to block her nomination to the Fed. Now she's going to be a counselor to the Treasury secretary.

Reuters · 2d
Fed's Musalem says tighter monetary policy needed to lower inflation
Federal Reserve · 2d
Federal Reserve Board announces enforcement action against American Express Company to address, among other things, the firm’s failure to sufficiently detect and report certain suspicious activity related to money laundering
CNBC Economy · 3d
Inflation on many everyday items was entirely due to tariffs, NY Fed says

Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.

CNBC Economy · 4d
Inflation fears on the rise as one-year outlook in Fed survey hits highest level since May 2023

The Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that the median outlook for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.9%.

Federal Reserve · 4d
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026
Federal Reserve · 5d
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by Isabella Bank Corporation
Federal Reserve · 8d
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of application by Fleur Capital Corporation
Chase Bank · 13d
What makes the Federal Reserve decide to raise or lower interest rates?

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The New York Times · Sep 22
Fed Raises Interest Rates in Push for ‘Timelier’ Retreat in Inflation
Peter G. Peterson Foundation · Sep 16
Fed Raises Rates for First Time Since 2023 as Interest Costs Top $1 Trillion

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Forbes · Sep 16
Federal Funds Rate History 1990 to 2026
Federal Reserve (.gov) · Sep 16
The Fed - September 15-16, 2026 FOMC Meeting
AP News · Sep 16
Federal Reserve hikes key rate for 1st time in 3 years, defying Trump demands for a cut
NBC News · Sep 16
Fed raises interest rates for first time since 2023, defying Trump as inflation mounts
PBS · Sep 15
WATCH: Warsh says 'inflation is too high' after Fed raises interest rate 1st time in 3 years

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X Feed

No X posts yet. Live search retries after the 15-minute backoff if xAI just failed (credits included).

Rules

If the Fed cuts 2 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on).