| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.5% | 11% | ▼ 3 | Yes 11¢ No 89¢ |
| Above 17% | 5% | ▼ 4 | Yes 5¢ No 95¢ |
| Above 4.8% | 6% | ▼ 1 | Yes 6¢ No 94¢ |
| Above 6% | 4% | ▲ 3 | Yes 4¢ No 96¢ |
| Above 12% | 3% | ▼ 2 | Yes 3¢ No 97¢ |
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Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.
The Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that the median outlook for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.9%.
University of Fort
Global New
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If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 4.8%, the market resolves to Yes.