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Fed & Economy · KXU3MAX · Resolves Mar 9, 2027

How high will unemployment get in 2026?

Showing: Above 6% · Resolves Mar 9, 2027
Above 6% · 4% chance▲ 3Updated 3 min ago
Feeds 2m ago · AI summary 3h ago

Forecast

9%5%0%Sep 12Oct 6Oct 11

Stats

Volume$221.0K
24h volume$43
Open interest$78.5K
Days left89
Bid / ask2¢ / 5¢
Last2¢

Outcomes

OutcomeChance24hPrice
Above 4.5%11%0Yes 11¢ No 89¢
Above 17%5%▼ 4Yes 5¢ No 95¢
Above 4.8%5%▼ 2Yes 5¢ No 95¢
Above 5%5%▲ 2Yes 5¢ No 95¢
Above 12%3%▼ 2Yes 3¢ No 97¢
Above 9%3%▼ 1Yes 3¢ No 97¢
Above 8%3%▼ 1Yes 3¢ No 97¢
Above 5.5%4%▲ 1Yes 4¢ No 96¢
Above 15%3%0Yes 3¢ No 97¢
Above 10%3%0Yes 3¢ No 97¢
Above 6%4%▲ 3Yes 4¢ No 96¢
Above 6.5%2%0Yes 2¢ No 98¢
Above 7%2%▲ 1Yes 2¢ No 98¢
Above 20%4%▲ 4Yes 4¢ No 96¢

Why it moved AI

  • Move size is unknown; current odds are 4%.
  • Posts cite rising inflation expectations, mixed CPI signals, and a hawkish Fed rather than cuts.
  • CNBC: Fed survey one-year inflation outlook highest since May 2023; NY Fed links some goods inflation to tariffs.
  • No U.S. jobs print is included; South Africa unemployment commentary does not apply.
Generated from news and X posts below · 3h ago